Article Archive
Browse all articles by date.
2026
January
- Striking Fuel: What the Rostov Oil Depot Attacks Reveal About Energy Vulnerabilities and Unmanned Escalation in the Black Sea Arena
- Stalemate by Algorithm: Russia’s Rejection of Ceasefire Talks and the AI-Drone Arms Race in 2026
- When Moscow Moves In: Russian Leverage Peaks as Sahel Federation Talks Advance
- Yemen Unified Framework: Can the Iran–Saudi Rapprochement Still Deliver?
- Paris Signals a New Phase: Long‑Range Strike Capabilities Feature in Ukraine Aid Calculus
2025
December
- Libya’s Electoral Pause and the Growing Arsenal: How Delayed Polls Feed Militarisation
- Houthi Red Sea Calm: Can Shipping Relief Seed Broader Economic Recovery?
- Myanmar Junta Surrenders Districts: Endgame Nears
- China's Cyber Force Expansion and the Challenge to Global Norms
- Hezbollah and the Litani Line: Why Withdrawal Claims Leave Compliance Doubts
- SAF Air Gains, RSF Ground Momentum Stalls: What Sudan’s Late‑2025 Battlefield Tells Us
- Taiwan Strait Live Fire and the Risk of Collision: Why a Near-Miss Would Matter
- Sovereign AI as Strategy: How Washington Is Turning Compute, Chips, and Contracts into a Military Edge
November
- LoC Drone Intrusions and the New Escalation Logic Between India and Pakistan
- Winter Offensive or Attrition Management? Russia’s Manpower Choices Ahead of Winter 2025
- Decapitated Command, Fragmented Territory: How the Loss of Hamas’ Senior Leaders is Reordering Power in Gaza
- Sahel Airpower at Risk: What Russian Attack Helicopter Attrition Would Mean for Regional Air Superiority
- Between Patronage and Partition: The STC’s Independence Drive and the UAE’s Calculus
- Syria, the Golan and Escalation Control: How Israel’s Strikes Have Been Managed and What Comes Next
- North Korea's Submarine Test Failure and the Deeper Problem of Reliability
- Kursk Foothold Holds: Why Russia’s Push to Evict Ukraine Has Not Delivered a Decisive Victory
October
- Watching the Exodus: EU Drone Patrols, Libya Transit Routes, and the Strategic Consequences
- Houthi Offensive in Marib and the Rising Risks to the Saudi Border
- Naypyidaw Under the Lens: What Rebel Drones Near the Capital Mean for Myanmar's Conflict
- China's DF-41 Parade: A Symbolic Peak in Nuclear Modernization — and What Comes Next
- The Blue Nile Front and the Question of Ethiopian Meddling: Strategic Drivers and Regional Risks
- Taiwan, U.S. Base Access and Lai Ching-te’s Calculus: A Strategic Break, Not a Shortcut
- Buffer Zone Politics: How the UN Resolution Dispute Between Hezbollah and Israel Shapes Lebanon’s Future
- Oct. 7 Anniversary: Two Years of a Multi‑Front War and What It Means for the Region
- Hamas’ De Facto Veto on Gaza Reconstruction: Security, Leverage, and the Limits of Donor Control
September
- When Borders Blur: A Boko Haram Splinter and New Alliances Reshape Sahel Risk
- Contest for Black Gold: How Deir ez-Zor Became a US–Russian Proxy Battleground
- Tejas Mk2 Rollout and the Limits of India’s Fighter Autonomy
- Hadrami Elite Clashes and the Rise of Tribal Arms in Hadramawt
- Missile Shield North: The Strategic Logic and Risks of an S-500 Move into the Arctic
- Ukraine F-35 Talks Advance: NATO Path
- North Korean Emissary to Iran: Strategic Implications of a Missile Technology Swap
- Tripoli Drone Strikes and the GNU–HoR Standoff: When Unmanned Firepower Becomes Political Leverage
- Houthi–US Truce Violations and the Resurgence of Drone Warfare in the Red Sea
August
- Myanmar Shan State Captures: Alliance Momentum and the Strategic Inflection in the North
- Hezbollah Re-Arms: How Syrian Routes Have Shifted and What It Means for the Region
- Philadelphi Sealed: What Cutting Gaza's Old Smuggling Routes Means for the Long War
- China's Lunar Resources: The Space Arms Race Begins
- Sahel Setbacks and the Price of Hesitation: Why Peacekeepers Keep Dying
- Port Sudan, the Port of Influence: What SAF’s Reported Breakthrough Means for the War and the Region
- Taiwan’s Cyber Defense Upgrades Meet a Rising PLA Hacking Surge
- The F-47 Reveal and the Sixth Generation Race: What Washington's Choice Means for Power Projection
July
- Syria and Hezbollah After Nasrallah: How Regime Change Reshaped an Alliance
- Private Lattice AI: How Anduril Is Rewiring Command and Control
- Yemen and Riyadh: Is a Saudi Air Campaign About to Be Revived?
- Pokrovsk Breakthrough and the Logic of Logistics
- Re‑targeting Crimea: How Storm Shadow Fits Into Ukraine’s Campaign to Isolate the Peninsula
- North Korea’s Artillery Modernization: Seoul in Range
- Gaza Hostage Recovery Ops: The Spec Ops Tech That Matters
- When Secrets Become Spoils: How Leaks of French Intelligence are Being Turned Against the Sahel
- Eyes in the Sky Over Sirte: Why Drone Surveillance Has Become the Oilfields' First Line of Defense
- Houthi Hypersonic Test Claims: Iranian Tech or Strategic Narration?
June
- Threading Stability and Leverage: How the CCP Is Recasting China’s Border Security Posture in Myanmar
- India’s Malabar Ambitions: Strategic Logic and Limits of Expanding QUAD Naval Drills
- Syria and Russia’s Mediterranean Foothold: Expansion, Hedging, and the Limits of Bases
- China’s AI Drone Swarms and the South China Sea: Capabilities, Demos, and Strategic Consequences
- Sudan’s JEM Alliance and the Consolidation of Darfur’s Rebel Fronts
- Hai Kun and the Logic of Sea Denial: What Taiwan’s Indigenous Submarine Means for Cross-Strait Strategy
- Hezbollah Cyber Operations and the Threat to Israel's Electric Grid: Capabilities, Risks, and Strategic Responses
- Ukraine Peace Formula Evolves: Zelenskyy Compromises as Diplomacy Shifts from Maximalism to Manageable Gains
May
- EU Defense Fund Boost: How EDF’s 2024 Round Is Accelerating Drone Swarm Capabilities
- Russia’s Zvezda Shipyard Strikes: How Sanctions and Contract Breaks Have Halted the Black Sea Fleet Rebuild
- Aden’s Port on the Fault Line: Why STC–Houthi Confrontation Would Reshape Yemen’s Strategic Map
- Solid Fuel, Fast Launches, and Layered Responses: What North Korea’s New ICBM Means for the U.S. Missile Shield
- Gaza Rafah Clearance: Is an IDF 'Phased Withdrawal' Likely?
- When the Climate Is a Recruiter: How Sahel Migration Is Feeding Insurgency
- Libya Fezzan Water Wars: How Sabotage, Scarcity and Grievance Are Turning Water into a Strategic Fault Line
- China’s J-20 and the Limits of Stealth Exports: Why Islamabad’s Fifth Generation Hopes Run Into Beijing’s Red Lines
- Ukraine’s Spring Offensive Plans: Western Tanks at the Forefront, Logistics and Strategy Will Decide the Outcome
April
- When a Company Holds the Switch: Starlink’s Private Role in Ukraine and Gaza
- Idlib Airstrikes and the Politics of Chemical Allegations: Why Claims About HTS Demand Independent Scrutiny
- Houthi Red Sea Raids and the Insurance Market: From Acute Shock to Structural Fracture
- Strained Borders, Shrinking Lifelines: Thailand’s Security Dilemma at the Myanmar Frontier
- India’s Agni-P and the MIRV Trajectory: A Strategic Deterrence Upgrade
- The Blue Line and the Limits of Neutrality: UN Options for an Israel–Hezbollah Border Demarcation
- Claims and Counterclaims over Luhansk: Reading the Signals Behind Moscow’s 'Control' Narrative
- Taiwan Strait Cable Cuts: The Emergence of an Undersea Infrastructure War
- US Hypersonic Glide Vehicle Test Success: Parity Achieved
March
- North Korean Hackers Target Crypto to Fund Proliferation
- Gaza’s Subterranean Problem and the Rise of Tunnel-Buster Munitions
- Sahel, Wagner Losses and the Limits of Russian Mercenary Power
- Darfur’s Return to Ethnic Cleansing: The RSF, Evidence and the Strategic Stakes
- Why Yemen’s Talks Have Stalled: The Limits of Leverage and the Houthi Imperative
- China’s Taiwan Reunification Timeline: Xi’s Rhetoric Hardens
- Hezbollah Rebuilds: Iranian Precision Missiles
- Kharkiv’s Defense Lines and the F-16: Tactical Relief, Strategic Limits
February
- Libya UN Partition Plan: Oil as Leverage
- Russia's Icebreaker Surge and NORAD's Arctic Challenge
- Between Swarms and Shadows: Iranian‑Backed Militia Drone Attacks on U.S. Bases in Syria
- Rafales in the Gulf: How UAE’s Acquisition Reframes India’s Security Calculus
- Myanmar’s Air Losses and the Problem of Chinese-Made Fighters: Technical Failures, Operational Costs, and Geopolitical Ripples
- Israel’s Yemen Strikes and the Strategic Problem of Houthi Long-Range Drones
- Between Gift and Gauntlet: The Likelihood and Consequences of Russia–North Korea UAV Co‑Production
- Gaza Reconstruction Pledges: Security Guarantees Absent
January
- Sahel Al-Qaeda Gains and the Risk of Burkina Faso’s Fall
- Ukraine and the F-35 Question: How NATO’s Fifth-Generation Footprint Is Deepening Alliance Integration
- China's Cyber Campaign Against the Philippines and the Architecture of Hybrid Warfare
- Sudan Partition Scenarios and the Risk of Arms Spillover into South Sudan
- F-16V Upgrades and Sustainment: What the Taiwan–U.S. Arms Trajectory Means for Deterrence
- Houthi‑Iran Split Rumors: Why Proxy Autonomy Is the New Reality
- Russia's Donetsk Consolidation: Annexation Formalities and the Long Game
- Hezbollah‑Israel Ceasefire Talks and the Strain on UNIFIL: Mandates, Verification and the Long Road to Stability
- Allies on the Edge: How Partners Are Reassessing Ahead of a Trump Inauguration
2024
December
- Libya Tripoli Siege: Turkish Drones Decide
- EU-Russia Gas Sanctions: The Energy Weapon Is Losing Its Bite
- Yemen’s Southern Trajectory: What the STC’s Gains Mean for the Country’s Future
- Sea-Based Nuclear Threat: What North Korea’s Latest Submarine-Launched Test Means for Deterrence and Stability
- Israel's Beirut Operations: Urban Counter‑Hezbollah Tactics and Strategic Consequences
- Ukraine Winter Attrition: How a Drone Production Surge Reshapes the Cold Season
- China's Lunar Base Plans: Space Security Implications
- Assad’s Frontline Stalled, Russian Air Support Returns: Short Term Rescue, Long Term Gamble
November
- Private AI Targeting in Ukraine: Palantir’s Expanding Role and the Strategic Stakes
- Bab al‑Mandeb Under Pressure: How Houthi Blockade Attempts Feed an Oil Price Risk Premium
- Myanmar–Laos Border Clashes and the Test of ASEAN Neutrality
- Taiwan Sea Drills Clash and the Limits of Carrier Signaling
- Khartoum’s New Fault Line: How Wagner’s Successors Shape the RSF Push
- Kuril Islands Drills Push Japan-Russia Standoff to a Higher Pitch
- Hezbollah-Israel Ground Incursion: The Northern Front Widens
- US Election Fallout: How Trump’s Ukraine Position Is Reordering Aid Dynamics
October
- Gaza Philadelphi Corridor: A Border Security Breakthrough and Its Strategic Risks
- From Test Range to Trade Route: Akash-NG and the Rise of India’s Air‑defence Exports
- After the Fall of the G5 Joint Force: How the Sahel’s Security Architecture Fell Apart and the Vacuum It Left Behind
- Libya: How Haftar’s Advances Are Being Sustained by Arms Embargo Evasions
- Vuhledar Falls: How Russia Is Turning Local Gains into Operational Momentum
- Djibouti and the Next Phase of China’s Overseas Support Base: Strategic Leverage, Dual Use, and the Belt and Road Connection
- Sanaa Under Fire, Sanaa Unbowed: How Houthi Resilience Shapes the Next Phase of the Yemen Conflict
- Iran’s Missile Barrage and the Strategic Limits of Israel’s Iron Dome
- US Aid Revival: Ukraine's F-16 Ramp-Up
- Leadership Vacuum after Nasrallah’s Assassination: Strategic Implications for Hezbollah and the Region
September
- North Korea’s Artillery Drills and the Seoul Deterrence Dilemma
- Netzarim Corridor: How Israeli Control Reshapes Gaza and Raises the Risk of Hamas Fragmentation
- Russia's Sabotage Claims at Zaporizhzhia: How Nuclear Narratives Raise the Risk of Escalation
- Private Drones in Africa: How Chinese Firms and Components Are Reaching Rebels
- Syria’s Masyaf Shock: How Israel’s Air Campaign Is Cementing a Preemptive Posture
- Taiwan Missile Tests and the Asymmetric Deterrence Buildup
- Houthi Claims and Carrier Resilience: How Uncrewed Swarms Tested U.S. Naval Air Defenses
- Ukraine ATACMS on Russian Soil: Red Lines Crossed
August
- Russia’s DF-17 Copies: Separating Myth from Market in Hypersonic Proliferation
- Three Brotherhood Alliance Gains, and What They Mean for the Junta’s Survival
- Sudan’s Famine as a Weapon: How Sanctions Have Responded and Where They Fall Short
- China’s J-35: How a Carrier-Capable Stealth Fighter Could Reshape Naval Air Power
- When the Gates Close: How Handing Over Sahel Bases Opens Tactical and Strategic Windows for Jihadist Groups
- Israel’s Hezbollah Pager Attacks: Cyber‑Physical Innovation and the Risks of Supply‑Chain Warfare
- How Libya’s Oil Blockades Have Been Reinforced by Militia Arms Flows
- Kursk Incursion: A Calculated Raid That Punctures Moscow’s Sense of Security
- US Elections Shadow: Trump vs. Harris on Security Policy
July
- Gaza Aid Pier Failure: What the Trident Mission Reveals About Logistics in Contested Zones
- Russia's Arctic Bases Expansion: Resource Wars Loom
- India and the Quad: Shaping an Indo-Pacific Check on Chinese Coercion
- Yemen Fuel Tanker Seizures: How the Houthis Turned Energy Into Economic Warfare
- Hezbollah Assassinations and the Logic of Tit for Tat Escalation
- Ukraine F-16 Debut: An Early Strategic Assessment of Combat Effectiveness
- China's Live-Fire Drills: A Preview of Blockade Playbooks in the Taiwan Strait
- Syria's HTS Offensive: Idlib's Quiet Power Shift
- US F-35 Sales to Poland: Strengthening NATO’s Eastern Deterrent
June
- North Korea–Russia Pact: Treaty Implications for Asia
- Qatar's Mediation in Gaza Ceasefire Talks: A Strategic Assessment
- Taiwan’s New President Lai Ching-te and Beijing’s Red Lines
- Russia's Pokrovsk Offensive: Grinding Advances Amid Losses
- Houthi Hypersonic Claims and the Broader Problem of Missile Proliferation from Yemen
- Iran’s Snap Presidency: Succession Questions and What They Mean for Tehran’s Proxy Network
- D-Day’s Lesson for Today: Why NATO’s Long-Term Commitment to Ukraine Matters
- Ukraine Peace Summit: Switzerland’s Neutral Ground Challenges
May
- Wagner Rebranded: Russia’s Africa Corps and the Making of a Proxy Empire
- Israel's Eurovision Controversy: Soft Power in Hard Security Contexts
- US Hypersonic Programs: Catching China and Russia
- Myanmar’s Drone Campaign: How Rebel Tech Is Reconfiguring the Fight Against the Junta
- Scarborough Shoal Confrontation: How a Civilian Flotilla and Reinstalled Barriers Mark a New Phase of Naval Escalation
- After the Repairs: Why the Crimea Bridge Remains Vulnerable to Maritime Drones
- Sudan’s Siege Economy: How Arab Arms Flows Hardened the Khartoum Stalemate
- China’s AI Military Integration: PLA Modernization Accelerates
- Hezbollah Tunnels Exposed: Assessing the Cross‑Border Threat and Strategic Consequences
April
- Ukraine-EU Security Guarantees: Post‑War Alignment Scenarios
- Agni-V's Mission Divyastra: Strengthening Deterrence, Not Magically Completing a Triad
- Gaza’s Tunnels and Israel’s AI Targeting: A Strategic Reckoning
- Sahel Coups Cascade: How ECOWAS Sanctions Strengthened the Juntas
- Russia's Oreshnik Missile: Assessing the Intermediate‑Range Threat to Europe (State of Knowledge, 16 April 2024)
- Yemen Truce Breakdown: Houthi Drone Campaigns Resume and the Strategic Implications
- Ethiopia’s Pretoria Deal at a Crossroads: Tests for Stability in the Horn of Africa
- Kharkiv on Edge: Assessing Fears of a Russian Spring Push
- Iran’s Direct Attack on Israel: Missile-Defence Lessons for a Dangerous Escalation
March
- Private Satellite Intel in Gaza: Commercial Space's Security Role
- Taipei’s Missile Demonstration and Beijing’s Amphibious Rehearsals: A Strategic Cross-Strait Pattern
- Syria Earthquake Aid as a Tool of Regime Survival
- North Korean Troops to Russia: Assessing the Claims and Strategic Risks
- Houthi–US Strikes Escalate: The Red Sea as a New Geopolitical Flashpoint
- Ukraine F-16 Deliveries Loom: Air-Defence Gaps Persist
- Militia Clashes and the Small Arms Ecosystem in Libya: A Strategic View on Proliferation across North Africa
- US-China Balloon Incident Review: Surveillance Technology and the Strategic Logic of Low-Cost ISR
February
- Rafah Planning at a Crossroads: Urban-combat Technology Meets Evacuation Dilemmas
- Mali’s Wagner Experiment: Counterinsurgency Failures and Strategic Blowback
- Iran's Uranium Enrichment Surge and the Shrinking Window to Revive the JCPOA
- Ukraine's Kursk Border Raids: Probing Russia's Defenses and Shaping a New Front
- BrahMos Exports and the Indo-Pacific: How India’s Missile Diplomacy Could Accelerate an Arms Race
- Fragile Lines: Why the Saudi‑Houthi Truce in Yemen Remains Precarious
- Russia's Arctic Militarization: Hypersonics, Bases, and NATO's Northern Flank
- Hezbollah Rocket Barrages: The Growing Precision Threat to Northern Israel
- US Aid Package Stalls: Ukraine's Ammo Crunch Forces a European Reckoning
January
- After the Coup: Russia’s Growing Military Footprint and the Strategic Reordering of the Sahel
- Drone Swarms in Ukraine: From Experiment to Battlefield Norm
- A Pattern of Coercion: How China’s Tactics in the South China Sea Put Philippine Resupply Missions at Risk
- Assad’s Tightrope: How Israeli Strikes on IRGC Assets Are Increasing Pressure on the Syrian Regime
- Houthi Missile Interceptions and the US-Led Coalition’s Counter-UAS Posture
- Ukraine’s ATACMS Strikes and the Escalation Ladder of Long‑Range Weapons
- Taiwan’s Election Test: Beijing’s Calibrated Pressure and the Fragile Logic of Cross-Strait Stability
- Sanctions, Supply Lines and Survival: Designing Aid Corridors for Gaza’s Humanitarian Emergency
2023
December
- Private Firms Arming Ukraine: Anduril and the Commercialization of Defense
- Avdiivka Siege Begins: Russia's Meat Grinder Tactics Revisited
- EU Sanctions on Iranian Oil: Limits of Leverage and Consequences for Proxy Funding
- How Ukraine’s Maritime Drones Reshaped the Black Sea Balance
- Naval Drones, Cruise Missiles, and the Erosion of Freedom of Navigation in the Red Sea
- North Korea's ICBM Trajectory: Proliferation Risks and the Shifting Architecture of Alliances
- Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Hopes: The Strategic Risk of a Multi-Front War
- Winter Counteroffensive Prep: How Ukraine’s Artillery Shortages Are Driving Tech Adaptation
November
- Sahel Jihadist Gains: How the French Exit Created Space and Wagner Seized Opportunity
- Nagorno-Karabakh Exodus: Azerbaijan's Drone Victory and the Emerging Regional Realignment
- Skyward Insurgency: How Drones Changed the Calculus of Myanmar’s Coup Resistance
- Taiwan Strait Patrols Intensify: Strategic Implications of Escalating US-China Posturing
- Iran's Drone Exports to Proxies: Tehran’s Shadow Network Exposed
- Escalation in Sudan: How Russian Arms Flows Are Empowering the Rapid Support Forces
- Ukraine's F-16 Training Progress: What Western Jets Can and Cannot Do Against Russian Air Superiority
- Gaza Ground Operations Begin: Urban Warfare Challenges and Tech Integration
October
- China's Hypersonic Tests and the Asia-Pacific Arms Dynamic: Proliferation Risks and Policy Responses
- After the June Revolt: Wagner’s Mutiny and the Changing Logic of Mercenary Power in Africa
- Houthi Drone and Missile Launches into the Red Sea: Early Signals for Global Trade Security
- US Arms Aid to Ukraine: Balancing NATO Commitments Amid Fiscal Debates
- Hezbollah's Border Clashes with Israel: Proxy Dynamics in the Levant
- Ukraine's Drone Strikes on Crimea: The Evolution of Asymmetric Warfare Tactics
- Date Clarification and Next Steps: I Cannot Report 'Hamas Attacks Israel' as of October 6, 2023